I hate spreading a doomsday message, but if you like diesel performance as you know it today, buy a 2006 vehicle. Starting January 1, 2007 the diesel car and truck engines that you've come to know and love for their power, fuel economy, and lack of restrictions will only be found on the used car lots.
Thanks to new federal emissions standards that you may have been hearing about (and should definitely read about in this issue), diesels sold after December 31, 2006 will require new ultra low sulfur fuel, new low ash oil, and will come with additional emissions equipment that will add cost, complexity, and potentially reduce their reliability. It's unclear if these trucks will be branded as 200711/42 or even 2008 model year vehicles, but rest assured they'll be running a different animal under the hood. If any of that scares you, buy a 2006.
In my eyes it's like 1970 all over again. It's just that 36 years ago I would have been writing about musclecars. Back then I would have predicted that 1971 will bring reduced engine power, lower compression ratios, new emissions equipment, and an all-new fuel that will permit car manufacturers to add catalytic converters in the exhaust to clean up the combustion process. Guess what? Diesel engines are about to go through the same thing. If you remember the '70s, and hated that transition, buy a 2006.
Sadly, some aftermarket companies that have run successful businesses with products that add power, but without any concern for the black smoke, could be in trouble. I've heard horror stories about plugged-up diesel particulate filters and "Check Engine" lights that will be tripped after the slightest modification. I fully expect engine computers to track and store every engine calibration change. So good luck trying to convince the service manager that your transmission blew up in 10,000 miles with a "stock" engine. And I've been told that engine compartments could be so packed with factory hardware that there may not be room for aftermarket intakes, intercoolers, or turbochargers. If you're not ready to be a pioneer in the diesel performance world, buy a 2006.
How the diesel engine manufacturers plan to meet the new emissions targets (90 percent cleaner than '03 model year trucks) is still unclear as I'm writing this. Rest assured that each company will use a combination of lower combustion temperatures (through EGR, reduced compression ratio, and more precise injection control) mixed with a series of exhaust-mounted after treatments to scrub any remaining HC, NOx, and CO out of the air before it reaches the end of the tailpipe. I like clean air as much as anyone, but my fear is that many of the new technologies that will clean up diesel engines are band aids that the original engine designers never intended or planned for. That traditionally means complexity...and problems. If you didn't like working on '86 trucks with carburetors and miles of vacuum hose, buy a 2006.
The good news is that come 2007, diesels will finally rid themselves of the negative stigma of being "stinky oil burners." They'll burn cleaner, run quieter, and continue to be a viable alternative to gas-electric hybrids. For '07 you should also expect more diesel vehicle choices. With new emissions systems in place, OEMs will again be able to offer diesels in vehicles with less than 8,600-pound gross vehicle weight ratings. By 2008 I think we'll see the return of the 11/42-ton diesel pickup truck. I expect it to wear a Bow Tie, but it won't be long until Dodge and Ford get their engine programs in place too.
Those of you who already own the diesel vehicle(s) of your dreams have nothing to worry about. Used diesel prices could go up, resale value will certainly hold steady, and you'll continue to find lots of (if not more) aftermarket parts for older diesel engines for decades to come. Yes, maybe even stuff for the IDI engines!
And Diesel Power will be here to guide you through whatever the future holds. Old Rudolph Diesel's engine has been dominating the torque segment for more than 100 years. If I had to bet, I'd say that 100 years from now (if we're still using internal combustion engines for anything), the engines of the future will be more like what we think of today as diesels, than gasoline. If you don't believe me, buy a 2006.David KennedyDavid.kennedy@primedia.com